Corporate foreign exchange news

Foreign exchange news: Canada's current account deficit weighs on Loonie

Friday, 27 November 2009 16:25:22 GMT

Published by Jamie Jemmeson
The Canadian dollar is overvalued and this will be reflected in a rising current account deficit over the next two years, CIBC World Markets has warned.
In an advisory trading note to clients, Krishen Rangasamy, an economist with the group, warned that the loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, will continue to pinch export growth as foreign investors are put off by the exchange rate cost of making international payments to Canadian suppliers.
Meanwhile, the strong loonie is also likely to make the country a less attractive destination for overseas travellers, with the US likely to mop up a large portion of this tourism trade while the dollar continues to languish.
Speaking to the Globe and Mail, Michael Gregory, a senior economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns, commented: "As a share of the gross domestic product, the current account balance should be around 3.5 per cent, up from three per cent in the previous quarter, representing the largest relative shortfall since 1993."
The loonie is likely to find further support on Monday (November 30th) from the latest core monthly retail figures, which are expected to show a 1.1 per cent growth for October, compared to 0.7 per cent the previous month.
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