Corporate foreign exchange news

Analysis: Dollar to gain against non-Asian currencies

Monday, 21 June 2010 09:29:49 GMT

Published by Mark Smith-Halvorsen
Following China's decision to relax the trading restrictions on the yuan, the dollar may appreciate against non-Asian currencies, Morgan Stanley has claimed.
In a research note released this morning (June 21st), a team of analysts led by the investment group's global head of currency strategy said the decision will likely push the dollar up against non-Asian currencies, particularly those that "benefit from reserve diversification such as the euro".
"China's move is likely to weigh on euro sentiment, as markets price the likely reserve reduction by China, even before we see physical reduction in reserves themselves," researchers added.
Morgan Stanley has also this morning looked to 2005 in an analysis of the forex market's reaction to the last yuan revaluation, although it noted that there were stark differences in global macroeconomic conditions at the time.
In contrast to the dollar's fall this morning, in 2005 the greenback rallied immediately in the short term before retreating later on in the month following the announcement.
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